In the long run, stocks go up: Navigating the ups and downs of the stock market
Stephen Tuttle

The stock market is a powerful tool for wealth creation. Legendary investor, Shelby Davis said, “History has shown that equities are the best way to build long-term wealth.” We agree and believe that investing in stocks can help you achieve your goals. 

We also know that returns from investing in stocks can be volatile in the short run. The ups and downs of the market can be nerve-wracking, and it’s easy to get discouraged when you see your portfolio value dropping.

Here are some guidelines for navigating volatility. 

Stocks have historically gone up in the long run.

Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors LP; CRSP market index, total returns in USD$

Volatility in the short term: Riding the rollercoaster

Despite their long-term upward trajectory, stocks are volatile in the short term. This means that their prices can fluctuate wildly over short periods of time. These fluctuations can be caused by a variety of factors, such as changes in the economy, interest rates, and investor sentiment.

Every year has its rough patches and while pullbacks cannot be predicted, they can be expected.  Markets suffered double-digit returns in 24 of the last 43 years but ended the year with positive returns 75% of the time, per JP Morgan.  

Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, JP Morgan Asset Management.  Returns are based on price index only and do not include dividends. Intra-year drops refer to the largest market drops from a peak to a trough during the year.  Returns shown are calendar year returns from 1980 to 2022. 

While volatility can be unsettling, it’s important to remember that it’s a normal part of the stock market. Trying to time the market is a recipe for disaster, as it’s impossible to predict when prices will go up or down. Instead, it’s better to focus on the long term and stay invested through the ups and downs.

Staying invested for the long haul: The power of time

The longer you stay invested in the stock market, the greater your chances of success. This is because time allows you to ride out the short-term volatility and benefit from the long-term growth of the market.

For example, if you invested $1,000 in the S&P 500 index in 1970, it would be worth over $28,000 today, even after factoring in inflation. This is a return of over 11% per year.

Of course, there will be years when the market goes down. But over the long term, the market has always gone up. So, if you can stay invested for 10, 20, or even 30 years, you’re very likely to see your portfolio grow significantly.

Adding bonds for smoother sailing

While stocks offer the potential for high returns, they also come with the highest level of risk. If you’re looking for a way to reduce the volatility of your portfolio, you can add bonds.

Bonds are loans that you make to companies or governments. In return for your loan, you’ll receive interest payments. Bonds are generally considered to be less risky than stocks, as they are more likely to pay back your principal.

By adding bonds to your portfolio, you can smooth out the volatility and reduce your overall risk. However, it’s important to note that bonds also have lower potential returns than stocks.

Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Federal Reserve, Robert Shiller, Strategas/Ibbotson, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.  Returns shown are based on calendar year returns from 1950 to 2022. Stocks represent the S&P 500 Shiller Composite and Bonds represent Strategas/Ibbotson for periods from 1950 to 2010 and Bloomberg Aggregate thereafter. Growth of $100,000 is based on annual average total returns from 1950 to 2022.

Diversifying your portfolio with other asset classes

The last 15 years have provided a volatile and tumultuous ride for investors, with multiple natural disasters, numerous geopolitical conflicts, a global pandemic and two major market downturns.

Yet, despite these difficulties, cash was among the worst performing asst classes over this time.  A well-diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, and other assets classes returned roughly 6% per year (and over 150% on a cumulative total return basis). 

Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, MSCI, Russell, Standard & Poor’s, JP Morgan Asset Management.

The specific asset allocation that’s right for you will depend on your individual circumstances, such as your age, risk tolerance, and investment goals. It’s always a good idea to talk to a financial advisor to develop an investment plan that’s right for you.

Conclusion: The path to long-term success

Investing in the stock market can be a great way to build wealth over the long term. However, it’s important to remember that stocks are volatile in the short term. By staying invested for longer periods of time, adding bonds and other asset classes to your portfolio, and diversifying your investments, you can reduce your risk and increase your chances of success.

About Signet Financial Management

Signet Financial Management is a wealth management firm that takes a personal approach in helping high-net worth families, individuals, and business owners navigate the complexities of managing money. We believe in your financial well-being, and custom tailor solutions using sophisticated investment management tools to help you keep more of what you earn and to reach your financial goals.

Founded in 1988, we manage approximately $840 million in assets with offices in Parsippany, NJ; Sterling, VA; Miami, FL; and Naples FL.

For more information, please contact Steve Tuttle directly at +1 800-390-2755 or stuttle@signetfm.com.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE

This is a publication of Signet Financial Management, LLC.

The information presented is believed to be factual, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or position. Information in this presentation does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice. It is limited to the dissemination of general information on products and services. A professional adviser should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.

Information in this presentation is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Information on this presentation is directed toward U.S. residents only. Signet only transacts business in states where it may legally do so.

Signet is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission, nor does it indicate that Signet has attained a particular level of skill or ability. A copy of the Signet current written disclosure statements discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Signet) or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly on this website, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this presentation serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Signet.

You might also like
July 3, 2024
Explore the concept of 'enough' in wealth management. Shift your investment strategy from growth to preservation and achieve true financial security.
Read more
July 1, 2024
Goldman Sachs explores AI's ROI and tech hurdles. Will AI investment pay off, or is it just hype? Learn about the future of AI.
Read more
June 18, 2024
Explore the effects of de-globalization on inflation and consumer prices. Understand the trade-offs and how to adjust your financial strategy accordingly.
Read more
June 3, 2024
Enhance your investment strategy with multi-factor ETFs. Learn how to use research-backed factors for superior returns and risk management in your portfolio.
Read more
May 30, 2024
Stop chasing market trends and start planning for a stable financial future. Discover how a personalized financial plan can help you achieve your goals.
Read more
May 16, 2024
Investor joy as April CPI data signals easing inflation and markets hit new highs. Explore the potential for a new bull run.
Read more
April 22, 2024
Explore the nature of stock market downturns and their impact on long-term investment goals with Steve Tuttle.
Read more
Why a multi-approach portfolio wins
April 15, 2024
Steve Tuttle explains how combining index funds, active strategies, and a multi-factor approach can enhance returns and align with your risk tolerance for a robust portfolio.
Read more
Drawbacks of index investing
April 1, 2024
Explore the risks of overexposure to large-cap stocks and the benefits of alternative investing strategies for a diversified portfolio.
Read more
February 29, 2024
Learn investment insights from Warren Buffett's 2024 Berkshire Hathaway letter, highlighting the importance of clarity, patience, and fiscal prudence for success.
Read more
February 1, 2024
Explore how structured notes can stabilize your investment portfolio amidst market volatility. Learn their benefits for a balanced approach to wealth creation.
Read more
November 29, 2023
Explore how structured notes can amplify the performance of your 60/40 portfolio. Understand their role in risk management and potential for higher returns in your investment mix.
Read more
November 9, 2023
Diversify beyond stocks and bonds with private markets. Discover long-term growth with private credit and infrastructure.
Read more
November 1, 2023
Considering investing in bonds? Discover why current interest rate conditions might make now the ideal moment.
Read more
Stay invested — the odds favor gains in the fourth quarter
October 2, 2023
Historically, the fourth quarter offers strong stock market returns. With signs of a potential rebound and support levels, cautious optimism prevails for a favorable end to 2023.
Read more
investing in dividend stocks
August 1, 2023
Learn about Signet's approach to investing in dividend stocks. Discover a better way to build a diversified portfolio for steady income!
Read more
Silicon Valley Bank logo in red background
March 21, 2023
The collapse of three US regional banks and the Credit Suisse selloff are drawing comparisons to the great financial crisis of 2008. We believe 2023 is different. Here's why.
Read more
January 31, 2023
Going to all cash can make sense in some situations, but the potential downsides include among others missing the market’s best days of high returns.
Read more
January 17, 2023
The SECURE 2.0 Act is packed with 92 retirement-savings provisions and illustrates the importance of revisiting your retirement and tax planning strategy annually.
Read more
November 1, 2022
Despite the polarization ahead of midterms, avoid the temptation to make significant changes to a long-term investment plan based on which party controls Congress.
Read more
October 4, 2022
This year is well on its way to being the worst in modern history for bond investors. But there is finally some income to be earned in the fixed-income market.
Read more
August 31, 2022
How you react to volatile markets plays a crucial role in your long-term success. Here are a few steps to take when the market gets scary.
Read more
July 6, 2022
Volatility can be managed. Steve Tuttle shares 4 investment strategies to manage volatility: reducing, navigating, harnessing, and monetizing.
Read more
US shorter-duration bonds can provide attractive income
April 5, 2022
The Signet investment team thinks the hawkish pricing in short-term rates might be overdone and prefers short-maturity bonds over long-term ones.
Read more
March 25, 2022
Financial planning goes beyond growing savings and cutting expenses. Here're 5 steps to a solid financial plan.
Read more
November 1, 2021
Inflation worries grow as the economy reopens. Steve Tuttle explains how to position your portfolio for financial success regardless of how much prices rise.
Read more
October 25, 2021
Amid the market volatility fear and greed can get the best of investors. These tips help control your emotions and achieve long-term success in the markets.
Read more
September 21, 2021
Financial security in retirement takes planning, commitment, and money. These 4 questions help identify your goals and needs within a retirement strategy.
Read more
July 27, 2021
There are many successful investment strategies that have performed well over time. Yet, capturing these returns is not easy for investors. Patience can help.
Read more
Dividends chart
July 6, 2021
Do you want to invest for retirement? Dividend-paying stocks can help preserve your capital over long term and generate income regardless of market conditions.
Read more
Impact of tax hikes on the stock market
April 28, 2021
Tax policy impacts corporate earnings and the stock market. However, over the long haul, other factors have more influence on the stock market performance.
Read more
March 23, 2021
Every correction seems like the start of a downturn. Yet market corrections don't lead to lengthy bear markets. Read how Signet handles market volatility.
Read more
March 9, 2021
Real assets can hedge against inflation in the current environment. Find out what two types of real assets Signet advisors focus on for a balanced portfolio.
Read more
February 1, 2021
The GameStop and AMC Entertainment story has dominated headlines recently. Steve Tuttle on why this won't have a big, lasting impact for long-term investors.
Read more
Investment lessons from 2020
January 14, 2021
2020 was a year of major upheaval. Here’re universal and timeless investment guidelines from Signet advisors to help you improve your financial situation.
Read more
8 ways to help lower your taxes
December 9, 2020
It’s a tough year for tax planning without knowing for sure which party will control the Senate. However here's how Signet advisors help clients save taxes.
Read more
November 1, 2020
Some investors think putting their money with multiple financial advisors means better results. This is not necessarily the case. It can make things worse.
Read more
October 8, 2020
In a joint study with Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, Signet investigates how patent disclosure impacts stock price of the focal patent company.
Read more
October 1, 2020
President Obama and President Trump pursued different policies while in office. Yet results in the financial markets were awfully similar during their terms.
Read more
September 1, 2020
Sector investing is an underrated strategy for investors, while it complements a core portfolio by seeking to enhance returns or diversifying portfolio risks.
Read more
July 1, 2020
Careful asset placement helps save on taxes. Asset location seeks to identify the right type of investment to own in retirement plans vs. taxable accounts.
Read more
June 1, 2020
No single factor works all the time. Steve Tuttle highlights the performance of factor investing and shows why portfolio diversification is so important.
Read more
May 1, 2020
As Signet carefully monitors risks, we deem tax-exempt municipal bonds are generating tremendous interest from investors. See the analysis for our optimism.
Read more
April 1, 2020
COVID pandemic short-term dynamics are rapidly changing causing many unknowns. Signet explains what to focus on to improve financial standings post crisis.
Read more
February 26, 2020
Steve Tuttle comments on market volatility and what to do if you are worried. Hint: don’t let coronavirus fears rattle your investment plan.
Read more
January 1, 2020
The new law expands opportunities to save for retirement, but changes the way beneficiaries receive money from inherited IRAS. Steve Tuttle gives highlights.
Read more
December 1, 2019
The end of the year is viewed as a time of spending. It can also be a time to consider tax-saving strategies. Here're the Signet advisors' tips for retirees.
Read more
October 1, 2019
The media flurry around the elections received a boost from impeachment talk. How will the complexities that follow major political events impact markets?
Read more
August 1, 2019
The S&P 500 is again near all-time highs. Psychologically, it can be tough for some investors to stay invested and buy. However, it is not a signal to sell.
Read more
July 1, 2019
Investing during retirement can be a daunting task. Steve Tuttle explains how to build a sound retirement plan that will increase your chances of success.
Read more
June 4, 2019
Short-term bond strategies are attractive for investors seeking to enhance yield while defending against volatile markets. Here's more about their benefits.
Read more
April 1, 2019
Steve Tuttle discusses strategies on how to deal with higher federal tax liability from newly imposed limits on deductions for state and local taxes.
Read more
March 4, 2019
The emotional toll from the stock market crash of 2008 still lingers for retirees. To avoid a similar calamity may of them reduce exposure to equities.
Read more
February 1, 2019
Due to lower income tax rates the benefits to establishing Roth accounts are increasing. Here're strategies to optimize the use of tax-advantaged accounts.
Read more
September 24, 2018
Driven by fear of underperforming the market, investors tend to focus on stock market benchmarks. But benchmarking investment can take your eye off the ball.
Read more
July 3, 2018
Yield curve causes anxiety with some investors. Fixed income CIO, Steve Tuttle, discusses bond yields and where Signet sees income opportunities heading.
Read more
April 3, 2018
Today’s backdrop requires a fresh approach to bond investing. Here are the strategies that can reduce equity risk while providing liquidity and income.
Read more
January 3, 2018
Steve Tuttle shows why investors shouldn't bet against bonds. As stock and other risk assets rise in value, bonds are an important diversifying asset class.
Read more
December 15, 2017
Our healthcare system is complex and difficult to navigate. Signet Financial Management provides a summary of the healthcare programs available to retirees.
Read more
December 1, 2017
Even in a rising rate environment, bond ladders can mitigate downside equity risk and diversify portfolios through good and bad market cycles.
Read more